Wednesday, September 28, 2005

Aluminum Consumption Will Lag Production in 2006

Bloomberg.com
Aluminum consumption will lag production next year for the first time since 2003 as higher energy prices slow economic expansion, said Alcan Inc., the world's No. 2 producer of the metal used in cars and cans.

Tuesday, September 27, 2005

Steel Prices Flat in Europe, Up in North America

MEPS STEEL NEWS
Steel people spend a lot of time talking about how the industry today is truly global. Developments in one part of the world impact trading conditions everywhere. One result of this is that steel prices in the various regions tend to move in roughly the same direction at the same time.
But just at present the opposite is happening. MEPS analysis shows that strip product prices in Europe are basically flat, while they are rising in North America and going down in Asia. Last month's values in these three regions were within about $US10 of each other. This month there is a range of almost $US100 per tonne between the lowest (Asia) and the highest (North America).

[...] in North America, the September hot rolled coil price jumped by almost $US70 to $US580 per tonne. This is partly because of increased raw material surcharges related to higher scrap prices. There are also signs of higher demand, as orders are being quickly placed for steel needed for reconstruction work after the recent hurricane.
Raw material surcharges look like increasing again in October because North American scrap costs have strengthened further. This is partly because of disruption to supplies of scrap and other raw materials caused by the hurricane.

Thursday, September 22, 2005

Stronach's luxurious haven for victims of Katrina

And the week wouldn't be complete for a metal stamping blog without paying tribute to Austrian-born Frank Stronach, Chairman and founder of Magna International, the big automotive stamper, who helped out Katrina victims in a big way ...
The Globe and Mail
Frank Stronach has had wild visions before -- but never one quite like this.
This improbable dream involves airlifting evacuees from the devastation of New Orleans to the pampered world of Palm Beach, Fla. -- a vision that involves rich American whites from gated communities opening up to desperately poor American blacks and even includes the construction of a new mobile-home community in Louisiana for more than 300 victims of hurricane Katrina.
And so far, he's pulling it off.
But then, Frank Stronach once dreamed he could make a better life in Canada than his native Austria could give, and he made it happen to a point where the young man who arrived with $40 in his pocket now regularly pockets more than $50-million in salary as the chairman of Ontario-based Magna International, the $20-billion automobile parts giant he built from scratch.


To make a long story shorter (you can read the article if you want it all), he flew some people to West Palm beach, where he had some horse race land not being used, put them up temporarily there, got the neighbours to donate used clothing, and has plans to relocate them all to a trailer park he's going to build north of New Orleans. The mobile homes will come from Canada (not sure why they need to come from Canada, maybe local suppliers have been wiped out near New Orleans).

Steel Prices and Inventories, Hydrogen, Zinc, Katrina

nwitimes.com
U.S. steel inventories held by wholesale distributors, who are among the biggest buyers of the metal, fell in August to their lowest since May 2004 because of increasing demand

A lot of material was being snapped up as prices rose last year, causing the effect to be more pronounced than it "needed" to be. Now that inventory is being sold off.

In other news, Gerdau's steel plant located near New Orleans hasn't been restarted and no date has been set.

The hydrogen situation at Air Products (from press release):
Air Products announced today that portions of its New Orleans, La. industrial gas complex should begin operations within the coming months, with substantial operations anticipated by the end of the calendar year.

And Zinc prices went up for a while, then all talk of it died down. 1/4 of freely available ready to ship american zinc was under water in New Orleans. After a while, people calmed down and remembered that Zinc doesn't rust (that's it's major use, in fact, as a rust-proofing agent). It doesn't float, it's so heavy that it's unlikely to go far in flood waters, it might need to be reskidded but it won't need much more work to be ready to ship again, so people calmed down a bit.

So after all the speculation, about the best we can say is that prices *may* go up, but we don't know for how long or how much.

Copper Prices on the rise again

We haven't spoken about copper prices for a while. For a while there, they were going (slightly) down each week. Now the trend has reversed itself ...

Copper prices in New York rose to a five-week high as U.S. inventories declined, renewing speculation that demand will exceed supply for the metal used in cars, homes and appliances.

Now, as I understand the article, this was at least partly due to funds buying futures as opposed to "real" demand, i.e. consumption, but the net effect on price for stampers is the same.

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Tuesday, September 20, 2005

Need to Reduce Burdensome Federal Regulations on America’s Small Businesses

Not much news here - small business is burdened with regulations ... although numbers are good. Of course, it's not clear by what method those numbers were arrived at.

Press Release
(WASHINGTON) A new federal study released today shows America’s smallest businesses spend 45 percent more per employee to comply with federal regulations than their larger competitors and are in desperate need of regulatory relief.
The study, released by the U.S. Small Business Administration’s Office of Advocacy this afternoon, found that small businesses with fewer than 20 employees annually spend $7,647 per employee to comply with federal regulations, compared with the $5,282 spent by firms with more than 500 employees. The compliance cost per employee for small manufacturers is at least double the compliance cost for medium-sized and large firms.

Saturday, September 17, 2005

Recycled Steel bigger deal, Free Trade when it's convenient, Copper prices

The Auto Channel
Schnitzer Steel Industries, Inc. announced today the new creation of the position of President of its Metals Recycling Business.

U.S. Reviewing Duties on Cement, Lumber and Steel
Bloomberg.com Canada
The Bush administration is weighing the possibility of suspending duties on Mexican cement, Canadian lumber and foreign steel in order to aid in the rebuilding of U.S. Gulf Coast cities following Hurricane Katrina.

And there are signs copper prices might have stopped rising ...
Copper Heads for a 2nd Weekly Drop in London as Stockpiles Rise
Copper headed for a second consecutive weekly decline in London after inventory expanded as producers increased output

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Friday, September 16, 2005

AK Steel Lowers Surcharge Slightly for Flat-Rolled Carbon Steel, Doubles Electrical Steel Surcharge

AP via Yahoo Finance
AK Steel said Thursday it lowered its October surcharge for flat-rolled carbon steel slightly while nearly doubling the present surcharge for electrical steel.
The company will impose a surcharge of $154 per ton for flat-rolled carbon steel shipped in October, slightly down from the $157 surcharge in September and last October.
For electrical steel, customers will have to pay a surcharge of $90 per ton, up from a $50-per-ton surcharge in September, but well below the $295-per-ton surcharge from last October.

Wednesday, September 14, 2005

Port of New Orleans Resumes Operations

VOA News
The Port of New Orleans, shut down for more than two weeks because of Hurricane Katrina, is slowly resuming operations. The first commercial cargo ship arrived Tuesday evening and officials hope to return the port to its normal schedule within six months.
This is the fifth largest port in the United States. Closed since August 27, the facility is now partially open for business.

The port is open earlier than expected. They say damage isn't as severe as first thought.

This from Canada.com
there were clear signs of progress on many fronts: the New Orleans airport reopened to commercial flights, the port resumed operations and the mayor said dry sections of the ravaged city - including the French Quarter and the central business district - could be reopened during the daytime as early as Monday, provided the Environmental Protection Agency finds the air is safe.
"We're out of nuclear-crisis mode and into normal, day-to-day crisis mode," Nagin said.
Entergy-New Orleans said it had restored power to 75 per cent of the 1.1 million customers that were out at the height of the storm.


Here come the steel increases:
Wheeling-Pittsburgh puts surcharge on steel goods reflects "significant increases" in costs of scrap, natural gas and transportation plus the effects of Hurricane Katrina on raw material supplies.

Tuesday, September 13, 2005

Demand goes up for Silicon Steel

PittsburghLIVE.com
Allegheny Ludlum Steel will upgrade its Bagdad Works in Gilpin because of an upswing in demand for silicon electrical steel, an upswing that is expected to grow stronger because of Hurricane Katrina.
Silicon steel is used to make electrical transformers, transformer lines and for in-house electrical systems.

If the Shrimp gonna Glow, let it Go!

Don't get me wrong, I love shrimp. In fact, that's probably why this is sticking in my mind. I just can't get over the idea that there's a danger of radioactive waste floating around in New Orleans and the shrimp are gonna eat it (and all the other pollutants).

More Katrina Effects

A quick browse through the headlines today indicate:

Zinc prices spiked last week on fears that stockpiles of Zinc in New Orleans might be damaged, destroyed or unavailable for a long time. But it seems that (a) much of the stocks are dry (either on high ground or stacked higher than the water reached), (b) water doesn't much bother Zinc, since it's primary application is rust-proofing (c) the Zinc in New Orleans hasn't been all that active anyways for a while, so if it's inaccessable for a while that's OK and (d) even if it's inaccessable, it's not gone.

Interestingly enough (at least from this distance - I might feel differently if I were down there), Zinc is one of the heavy metals they expect to find in abundance in the polluted wastewater from New Orleans. Too bad they can't effectively remove the metals from the polluted waters and reclaim them.

In the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, preliminary sampling results show high concentrations of fecal coliform bacteria (E. coli) which can be attributed to both point and nonpoint sources. Failing waste water treatment plants, debris, and animal waste or carcasses have contributed to the concentration of bacteria in the receding floodwaters. High organic loads are expected from marshes and forests transporting sediments, nutrients and organic material into the receiving waters. Pesticides from row crop agriculture and highly urbanized areas, as well as oil and grease from submerged parking lots, roads, highways, and driveways will be unusually high. Sediment from construction sites, nutrients from fertilized lawns, and heavy metals (zinc, cadmium, chromium, copper, and lead) are also expected to be sources of pollutants within urbanized areas.


MM, mmm, good.

For more about pollution effects of Katrine (not really related to metal stamping), see this article. Let me leave you with just a few thoughts:
(a) We all live downstream and
(b) The newest fear is radiologicals that might have escaped from hospitals and universities. Say what? People had permits to use radioisotopes in a below-sealevel floodplain area regularly visited by hurricanes and they weren't required to store them in a way that would prevent spreading in a storm? Well, now, isn't that good news.
(c) Like shrimp? Among the first living creatures to be impacted are shrimp Soon the only way to eat shrimp will be in the dark. Avoid the ones that glow.

Hydrogen was a hot topic last week. Air Products, a major hydrogen supplier for cold rolled steel making, warned that it may be unable to supply customers. This week they announced that, by a number of strategies, they've been able to make do. These include converting some customers to gaseous rather than liquid hydrogen and using up excess product in various places in the distribution chain. Some work is being done to partially restart their Sarnia, Ontario facility too. In addition, they have determined that their facility in New Orleans, while currently inaccessable because of water, is largely undamaged and *should* restart without too much hassle when the water is drained away.

Interestingly enough, hydrogen is also used to make computer chips.

The construction trades are worried about availability and cost of steel (especially rebar, I would imagine), cement and gypsum in the wake of the hurricane. For two reasons - it'll be needed to rebuild New Orleans, and shipping of heavy products such as these goes best by boat. With the port of New Orleans out for a while, shipping by ship is going to be disrupted in a major way.

Truth about Trade and Technology says the US should drop their anti-dumping laws on four products, lumber, cement, shrimp and steel, all of which will be needed in the reconstruction (well, maybe not the shrimp). I've been saying this for a while, not just about those 4 products, and not just post-Katrina, but they make a point that now would be an even better time than previously.

The first steel company layoffs because of the hydrogen problems have occurred. And steel company shares are already dropping and earning forecasts revised downward, because of the expectation that recycled scrap steel and other raw materials will be at a premium with so much shipping knocked out.

All in all, an interesting start to the week.

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Friday, September 09, 2005

New Use for Steel - Dutch seize tons of cocaine in Rotterdam port hidden inside reels of steel cable

Well, here's a novel use for steel
From USA Today
AMSTERDAM, Netherlands (AP) — Authorities seized 5 tons of cocaine hidden in reels of steel cable in the Port of Rotterdam last month in what prosecutors described Monday as one of the country's biggest drug busts.
The seizure was the largest in the Netherlands in terms of value, with an estimated street worth of $275 million. It was kept secret until Monday while arrests were prepared.


The way prices are fluctuating, we may soon be talking about the "street price" of steel ...

Thursday, September 08, 2005

Automotive Functional Build Simulator Passes First Test

Well, I'm not sure what all the technical details mean, but the idea, at least in the broad strokes, sounds promising. Those of you (and us) that have done some automotive work will know that sometimes problems come up in assembly after all the tooling is made, and they're wonderfully obvious in hindsight but no one saw them on the front end. On the front end, of course, saves a *lot* of tooling money and time. Since most metal stampers make little or no money on tooling and make their profits in actual component manufacture, avoiding "doomed" tooling builds is a really good thing.
RedNova News
Expected to save Michigan automakers and suppliers $3.5 billion in lower body assembly costs over six years, the Digital Body Development System (DBDS) has passed its initial development challenges and will soon be deploying a beta prototype at a handful of tool and die shops.
Three years ago, an alignment of automobile and tool manufacturers, software developers and academia joined forces with the National Institute of Standards and Technology's (NIST) Advanced Technology Program on the nearly $11.5 million software project.
Originally estimated at $10.8 million with a federal contribution of $5 million, DBDS will enable virtual implementation of functional build through the integration of a dimensional and finite element simulation with an agent-based support system. In essence, DBDS will simulate newly designed automobiles and their assembly processes, and with the aid of artificial intelligence, allow engineers and designers to identify and solve problems before any assembly occurs.
DBDS was the brainchild of the Auto Body Consortium, now part of the Center for Automotive Research (CAR) in Ann Arbor. CAR has long been focused on functional build, a manufacturing strategy that assesses design in the context of final assembly to lower engineering costs, said DBDS project manager Richard Gerth.

Wednesday, September 07, 2005

Effects Of Katrina - Force Majeure

Force Majeure is a legal term which basically means I can break my contract because of weather beyond my control.
azobuild.com
Hydrogen is an essential product used in the production and processing of steel. The Air Products hydrogen plant in New Orleans provides as much as 30%-40% of all merchant hydrogen consumed in North America. It is our understanding that Air Products has declared 'force majeure' with customers east of the Rocky Mountains with at least one steel company suspending orders until further notice. Air Products is working to supply customers by routing hydrogen from other sources and areas, the company said in a statement. Air Products still does not know the full extent of damage to its New Orleans operations. But it said hurricane damage will limit its ability to supply hydrogen there 'for an extended period of time'.

Other, less steel related cases of Force Majeure:
Peroxymeric Chemicals , a business unit of The Dow Chemical Company

Specialty chemicals company Cytec Industries Inc.

CSX Corp. , a Southern railroad

I don't have a web reference, but Greer Steel has also declaired force majeure.

Steel prices to rise in Katrina's wake

Just when you thought you'd heard all the good news coming out of the New Orleans area, we get this little tidbit.
marketwatch.com
The price of steel used to make cars and industrial equipment is expected to rise as much as 40% in coming months, or up to $80 a ton, partly because of Hurricane Katrina damage in the New Orleans area, according to a media report Wednesday.
Flooding has limited the supply and distribution of liquid hydrogen and scrap steel, The Wall Street Journal reported in its online edition. Scrap is used to make basic steel; liquid hydrogen is used to make higher-quality products such as galvanized and cold-rolled steel. Concrete reinforcing bar, or rebar, also is expected to rise.
The flooding-created price increase, estimated at 20%, comes atop previously announced 20% price increases by steelmakers

Tuesday, September 06, 2005

Katrina could cause river traffic delays in Pennsylvania

The impact of Katrina on metal stamping is just starting to be recognized ...
phillyBurbs.com
In Pittsburgh, the nation's second largest inland port, only about 7 percent of the 40 million tons of material that came through the Ohio, Allegheny and Monongahela rivers last year was from Louisiana.
But that 2.7 million tons of mainly raw materials was concentrated in the chemical, steel and petroleum industries, which are now casting a nervous eye on progress in New Orleans.
'We're like everyone else. We're trying to gather information, but information is hard to come by,' said Greg Wilkinson, spokesman for NOVA Chemicals, which has a manufacturing plant in Monaca, about 22 miles west of Pittsburgh along the Ohio River.


Other effects: IPSCO , in a press release, says their major production facilities are OK, but they may have problems obtaining transportation. Also reported here.

Already several days ago Bloomberg was reporting Orders for steel sheet, whose price has risen nearly 20 percent in a month partly because of the storm, are climbing because distributors fear that the port's closing will lead to shortages, said Chris Olin, a senior analyst for Longbow Research, of Independence, Ohio, in a report. Coffee addicts will be saddened to know that it is also effected (up 10%).

Companies, farmers race to re-route goods. New Orleans plays a larger role in the lives of U.S. consumers than they may know. More than 6,000 ocean vessels loaded with steel, coffee, rubber, grain and manufactured goods pass though its port each year.

Zinc, used in a number of plating processes and also in galvanizing steel, is effected. The London Metals Exchange shut down trading in the metal.
New Orleans accounts for about half of the inventories of zinc that can be traded on the LME and about a quarter of the world’s total stockpiles. (about 225,000 tonnes are stored in New Orleans). See also this article.

Another posting got lost somehow. Maybe Katrina ate it.

Steel Dynamics Inc. said after Friday's closing bell that it has informed its customers that it's suspending order entry for cold rolled, galvanized and painted sheet products because of a hydrogen gas supply issue.

Steel Dynamics said it was informed by Air Products Corp. , its hydrogen gas supplier, that it would be unable to meet Steel Dynamics' immediate supply needs because of a New Orleans facility outage due to Hurricane Katrina, as well as a planned two-month shutdown of its plant in Sarnia, Ontario.

Production of hot rolled and hot rolled pickled and oiled coils will not be affected, the Fort Wayne, Ind.-based company said.

Thursday, September 01, 2005

Byrd opens new front on trade war - Japanese Tariffs on U.S. Steel Take Effect

Regular readers of this Blog could hardly be surprised by this news - after all, there's been plenty of warning. Today is the first day of Japanese tariffs. This piece just kinda marks the fact that it actually came to pass.
AP via Yahoo News
Japanese tariffs on U.S. steel imports took effect Thursday as part of Tokyo's battle against American steel industry protection measures.
One can hardly blame the Japanese. It's been 5 years and the US congress has had plenty of warnings from Canada, from the WTO, from Japan, from the EU.

I deal with Byrd in detail here, so there's no need to waste further electrons on it again.

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