Saturday, January 26, 2008

China's Pain is Century Aluminum's Gain

The main part of the article is about aluminum, how a major aluminum smelter in China had to shut down, and what that's going to do to the aluminum market.

But the larger issue, for most stampers, is in this section. Power problems and unreliability in China are going to increase

Arif said that while the outages at Chalco’s plants are only temporary, there will start to be more power issues in China going forward. China has been subsidizing power for its users so demand for power has grown unabated, Arif said. As the costs to produce power, whether coal or other fuel, has increased, the Chinese government has spoken about increasing the power costs for institutional consumers like aluminum consumers. “That’s why you’ll start seeing a lot more of these types of power issues develop,” he said.

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Friday, January 25, 2008

Copper May Drop on Reduced Metals Use Because of U.S. Recession

Copper may fall next week on speculation the U.S. economy is sliding into recession, reducing demand for the metal used in wires and pipes.
Maybe, but so far, it's still hanging out in the $3 neighbourhood, a far cry from $2.50 a year ago and $0.80 5 years ago.

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Thursday, January 17, 2008

Copper drops, but not as much as you might think (or wish for)

For an amusing hour or so yesterday, Kitco, my favorite metals reporting web site, was claiming that Copper had dropped a dollar to $2 and change. It must have been a reporting glitch, because later the metal went back up to $3 and change. But for a few minutes there I was ready to break out the champagne.

But copper at $3 is a lot better than a year ago, when it was up to $4.

Likewise, zinc is still above "normal" levels, but has subsided recently to a buck (it had been $2 just over a year ago).

Nickel, having been close to $25 a year ago, is down around half that now. For a while, in late 2007, it was actually down under 12

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